The Islamic State (Isis) has warned South Africa not to get involved in the fight against militant insurgents in northern Mozambique.
It has been reported in al-Naba, that ISIS has said South Africa has enough of its own problems to attend to.
If South Africa wants to get into fights in the province of Cabo Delgado in Mozambique, it could end up in a financial, security and military predicament.
It could even lead ISIS to set up a front in South Africa, says the main article in al-Naba.
Prof. Theo Neethling, political scientist and military expert at the University of the Free State, says South Africa must take these threats very seriously.
Fierce fighting is taking place recently in the gas and oil-rich Cabo Delgado, where militant inverters have begun to make their mark since 2017.
This is accompanied by violence, kidnappings and the destruction of the province’s infrastructure.
More than 1,000 people have already died in the violence and injured around 100,000.
The Mozambican army is not dogging the militants and a Russian company, the Wagner Group, led by Pres. Vladimir Putin was sent to help the Mozambican government.
The latest is the Dyck Advisory Group, a South African security group led by a former colonel of the former Rhodesian Army who has had great success against the militants. Former South African soldiers are part of Col. Lionel Dyck’s group.
Neethling says extremist Islamic group Ahlu Sunnah Wal Jamaah is also known as Al Shabaab in Mozambique – though he says there is no connection with the eponymous Somali movement.
Because the Mozambican military is struggling in its fight against extremists, the possibility of regional conflict is not ruled out. “If it did, it would suck in South Africa as well,” Neethling said.
“Sasol has made major investments in the gas industry there, and as for the other petroleum giants’ investments there, there are now great risks and uncertainty as far as the future is concerned.
“The gas extraction could bring poverty alleviation in Mozambique and should the projects fail, it would be bad for economic development in Mozambique.
“It will not be in South Africa’s interest because he already has Zimbabwe on its northern border where things are going very badly,” he says.
The government of Pres. Filipe Nyusi recently turned to the Southern African Development Community (SADC), in which South Africa plays a key role.
South Africa is watching closely the events in Mozambique.
Al-Naba writes “crusader oil companies” have invested billions of dollars in Cabo Delgado. American, British, French, Spanish and South African companies have interests here.
The newsletter says 50 years after Portugal withdrew from Mozambique, it still has a big influence in Cabo Delgado.
The country is now ruled by a “tyrannical gang of communist atheists”.
Russian and Chinese companies also hope to gain a foothold here, al-Naba said .
According to the newsletter, the “unbelievable Mozambican government” has decided to call for help from neighboring countries and “far-off crusader countries”.
“Before these countries in Europe and the Americas decide to send their forces to the north of Mozambique to make this area (like the endless war in West Africa) the new theater of the war against the Islamic State, they are trying to get the South African government and its army to take the lead. “
This is because of South Africa’s location and its strong links with Mozambique. Al-Naba argues it would be a huge mistake for any army to engage in a long and protracted war in Mozambique.
He thinks the “crusader countries” are afraid that if they intervene here, more Muslims in Mozambique will join “the caliphate soldiers”.